Preidential Poll Results

FD · Status: Offline

Preidential Poll Results

patryn · Status: Offline

i believe its us independents that will really decide the election.

FD · Status: Offline

Total number of polls filled out for dates 3/29-4/2 :

N = 29,719

54.7% Bush   ......... 16,260
39.9%% Kerry ........ 11,844
2.0% Nader .........    580
3.5% Undecided ......   1,035
----------------------------------

Now, Bush's support, while strong, is moving slightly down.
Polling on the Internet over-represents Republicans. 43.3% of
the people taking the poll identified themselves as Republican.

Below we balanced the raw numbers above to the national average
of Republicans, Democrats and Independents. The balanced numbers:

Bush .............. 50.5%
Kerry .............. 43.2%
Nader .............. 2.2%
Undecided .......... 4.0%

Bush is still way ahead but is slipping.

---------------------------------

Here is what we believe to be Kerry's largest problem in this race:

15.2% of registered Democrats are either undecided or voting for
someone other than John Kerry. This means his democratic base is
weak compared to Bush's concrete hold over Republicans. Take a
look at the large sample sizes:

Democrats- N = 9467

%    Supporting Actual number
10.8% Bush    1027
84.8% Kerry 8030
1.4% Nader    128
3.0% Undecided    282
------------------------------------------

Independents- N = 7371

45.2% Bush 3334
42.8% Kerry    3152
4.9% Nader 359
7.1% Undecided 526
------------------------------------------

Republicans-   N = 12,840

92.4% Bush 11,872
5.1% Kerry 649
.7% Nader    93
1.8% Undecided    52

Bush's support within Republicans is more solid than Kerry's
within Democrats.

FD · Status: Offline

Total number of polls filled out for dates 4/2-4/9 :

   [These are RAW NUMBERS...Not Balanced.]

N = 43,854

56.1% Bush   ......... 24,605
38.4%% Kerry ........ 16,858
1.9% Nader .........    831
3.6% Undecided ......   1,560
----------------------------------

While the overall numbers SEEM better for Bush, the reason
for this is that we had the highest number of Republicans
ever to take the poll. This skews the results FOR Bush.
44.1% of the poll takers identified themselves as Republicans.
This is way over the national average. SO we know the results
are skewed.

But...and this is a big BUT, this is the first week we see
SIGNIFICANT slipping in support for Bush. We can only get to
see this by balancing with such a large sample size, the
decline in support .4% is material.

Below we balanced the raw numbers above to the national
average of Republicans, Democrats and Independents likely
to vote. We have included last week's percentages and show
this week.

   Last Week    This Week Change

Bush .............. 50.5%    50.1%    -.4%
Kerry .............. 43.2%    43.6%    +.4%
Nader .............. 2.2% 2.2% no change
Undecided .......... 4.0% 4.1%    +.1%

Bush is still way ahead but is slipping. It appears that
Clarke's testimony hurt President Bush.

---------------------------------

While some of this news might seem good for Kerry, he has
significant problems generating solid support from his party.
Independents are not flocking to his candidacy...and they
hold the key to the 2004 election.

To prove the point, look at the raw numbers by party and
candidate in the most important state:

Florida N= 4552

Total Votes DEM Rep Ind
2,528    Bush 195    1916 417
1,813    Kerry 1284 155 374
65    Nader 16 8    41
   146    Undec.    31    47    68

Here are the percentages of each party for each candidate:

   DEM Rep Ind
Bush 12.8% 90.0%    46.3%
Kerry    84.1%    7.3%    41.6%
Nader 1.0% .4% 4.6%
Undec.    2.0%    2.2% 7.6%

Bush and Kerry both show declining support in their respective
parties. Kerry with 84.1% of support and Bush declining to 90%
presents a challenge for both candidates. For the first time
it looks like Nader takes away significantly from Democrats.

The numbers show a Nader supporter twice as likely to be a
Democrat than a Republican.

***********************************************************

   Signs are pointing towards a bad mosquito season

With warmer weather and heavier rainfall, this could be one
of the worst mosquito seasons in years.

The bad news: Biting Mosquitoes can make a stay outdoors
miserable. In rare cases, mosquito bites can lead to dangerous
illnesses like the West Nile Virus.

The good news: You can eliminate the risks of mosquito bites
and enjoy the outdoors by using Sunbeam Mosquito Repellants.

Undetected by human ears, the Personal Mosquito Repellant
produces powerful ultrasonic signals up that chase out unwelcome
pests. Conveniently clips to clothing, backpacks or even your
key ring and is CHEMICAL FREE. This is the PERFECT alternative to
messy creams, lotions and sprays. You'll never have to worry
about mosquito bites again... Now you can order a set of 3 Personal
Mosquito Repellants for just $12.99 or SAVE $6 and get six (6)
for $19.98. BATTERIES ARE INCLUDED... Visit:
http://ads.itsyourmail.com/al/a?aid=6785&ent=1224

Personal Mosquito Repellants

***********************************************************

LAST WEEK'S QUESTION:

Do you believe former terrorism czar, Richard Clarke was a
credible witness?

A total of 51,655 people answered the question-of-the-week.

Because there was such a huge difference in answering this
question along party lines, we decided to break the numbers
down by political party. The differences are amazing:

Party   He IS credible He IS NOT credible    Undecided

Dem 65.0% 14.9% 20.1%
Rep    7.9% 68.7% 23.4%
Ind 38.6% 40.0% 21.4%

The stark difference between Democrats and Republicans
indicates something fundamental. People filter information
through powerful emotional attachments to party. Independents
seem to be more open-minded AS A GROUP.

But everyone had the SAME information, watching Clarke, and
yet Republicans and Democrats process information decidedly
different. Is it the case that party affiliation and self-
identification creates a sub-text of loyalty that influences
the way people process information.


-----------------------------------------

   BATTLEGROUND STATE POLL RESULTS

There are 17 states that represent the "battleground" for the
election. Each week we will examine one or two. This week:

New Mexico   N = 439

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Important note: Because of the high percentage of online
Republicans who took this poll, we needed to balance the
results to reflect the percentages of Independents, Democrats
and Republicans in New Mexico. Because the sample size was
large enough, we ere able to come up with an extremely accurate
snapshot of this race.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Bush .............. 51.5%
Kerry ............. 42.7%
Nader ............. 2.5%
Undecided ......... 2.9%

Bush has a commanding lead in this pivotal state. We will
be tracking all of the battleground states...so stay tuned.

Billy_Boy · Status: Offline

Independant is another way of saying "uninformed" its shows through to be true every day too. They THINK theyre being free minded but its funny though because they usually know nothing about the issues. Educated people will usually be able to choose a side.

FD · Status: Offline

quote:
Originally posted by:
"Independant is another way of saying "uninformed" its shows through to be true every day too. They THINK theyre being free minded but its funny though because they usually know nothing about the issues. Educated people will usually be able to choose a side."

I disagree completely. I participate in this poll, and I mark that I am indendent. I'm registered libertarian, but when the choices are republican, democrat, * independent I'm going to choose independent every time. Of course this could also include many of the other political parties.

Also, this poll reflects a large republican polling base, so the numbers are going to be at least slightly askew anyway.

FD · Status: Offline

Total number of polls filled out for dates 4/9-4/16 :

   [These are RAW NUMBERS...Not Balanced]

   N = 28,733

Ind    Dem Rep
Bush    3,214    1,086    12,249
Kerry 2,697    7,191 642
Nader 344    124    71
Undec.    525    329 261
------------------------------------------------

The above numbers are skewed because 46% of the people filling
out the poll identified themselves as Republican.

Now, there are those that say "people can lie". This is true
enough but a recent study conducted by Jupiter said that people
ARE MORE HONEST via email than the phone or in person.

Also, our large sample sizes reduces the "lie factor", which
exists for telephone surveys, mall intercepts and other survey
forms.

Below we balanced the raw numbers above to the national average
of Republicans, Democrats and Independents likely to vote. We
have included the last two week's percentages plus this week.

2 Weeks ago Last Week This week   Change

Bush ....... 50.5%    50.1% 50.6% + .5%
Kerry ....... 43.2%    43.6% 42.7% - .9%
Nader ....... 2.2% 2.2%    2.3% + .1%
Undecided ... 4.0% 4.1%    4.4% + .3%

Republicans are rallying around Bush in almost drone-like
manner. His support among Republicans is solid. Republicans
are more loyal to party than Democrats meaning he does not
seem to lose support no matter how bad things go in Iraq or
the 9-11 hearings.

Kerry just has not excited potential voters. His .9% drop
in one week (balanced and accurate) should be alarming to his
staff, unless they are drinking the kool-aid and believe he
is ahead in the polls.

-------------------------------------------

How do Jewish Voters break down?

   N = 1,841

Here are the percentages of each party for each candidate:

   DEM Rep Ind
Bush    8.0%    87.7% 40.1%
Kerry    88.6% 8.7% 48.2%
Nader 1.8%    .6%    4.7%
Undec.    1.6% 2.9%    7.1%

Bush has no chance to take the Jewish vote in 2004 although
he shows more support than any Republican since Ronald Reagan.

Next week we take a look at how the "Catholic vote" breaks down.

***********************************************************

LAST WEEK'S QUESTION:

Do you believe that we should send more troops to Iraq?

A total of 39,845 people answered the question-of-the-week.

Here are the percentages by party affiliation:

Party    Yes No    Undecided

Dem 24.9% 62.3% 12.8%
Rep       64.1% 18.0% 17.9%
Ind 45.0% 40.1% 14.8%

This is the issue that splits the nation at this moment. From
a political view, this is a no-win situation for Bush. Iraq is
very volatile and as the body bags and casualties mount, this
presents a political problem for Bush.

This election will be decided by the Independents. They are the
most conflicted. Also Bush's support for this key decision in his
own party is weak compared to his overall support within the party.

-----------------------------------------

   BATTLEGROUND STATE POLL RESULTS

There are 17 states that represent the "battleground" for the
election. Each week we will examine one or two. This week:

Missouri N = 525

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Important note: Because of the high percentage of online
Republicans who took this poll, we needed to balance the results
to reflect the percentages of Independents, Democrats and
Republicans in Missouri.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Kerry ............. 47.0%
Bush ............. 45.9%
Nader ............. 2.7%
Undecided ......... 4.2%

This is such a tight race. The closeness of the race may
cause Kerry to choose Missouri's favorite son, Dick Gephardt,
as a running mate. It is simply too close to call.

***********************************************************

Bonus Battleground State -- Minnesota

   N=331

Balanced for party affiliation:

Kerry ............. 48.3%
Bush .............. 44.1%
Nader ............. 3.9%
Undecided ......... 3.6%

Kerry is solid in Minnesota where independents are strong.
Interesting note: Kerry and Bush are dead even with Independent
voters at 40.6% going to each. Nader is showing 11.5% support
amongst this group.